Jonathan's Extra Bold 2012 Technology Predictions
All right, folks. Here they are: my three new-year predictions, each one more predictive than the last. Like IBM, I'm taking a five-year view on these (mostly because that way, you won't be able to prove me wrong until 2017, and by then, you'll have forgotten all about it).
Extra Bold Prediction #1: Facebook will die.
I know, I know. My anti-Facebook posture has been well documented on this blog. But recently, I returned to Facebook (for work purposes) and was astounded (all over again) by the overall crumminess of the user interface.
I'm not saying Google+ will be the successor (although I did say that last year). But in Facebook, we're dealing with a poorly designed product that's living off of user familiarly and product ubiquity. And that sounds an awful lot like… (dare I say it?) Microsoft.
Extra Bold Prediction #2: Voice recognition will fail.
Santa SIRI makes for a great commercial, but not such a great commercial product. From what I've heard (and witnessed first-hand), SIRI is still “finding itself.” Sure, you can say that it's a young technology. But voice recognition software and voice-enabled devices aren't young. They've just been poorly executed for many, many years.
I remember being supremely skeptical of touch screen technology when the iPhone came out, because all I could think of were those horrible museum kiosks that you touch to learn more about Australopithecus, and the machine freezes every two seconds until you punch someone.
But here's the thing: Apple made touch screen fun and easy, and I'm sure they’ll do the same, eventually, with voice. Yet at the end of the day, a fully functional voice solution will still be (in my estimation) more novelty than necessity. Thus, it won't last.
Extra Bold Prediction #3: Print media will become cool.
I'm tempted to predict something relatively non-controversial here like all-out cyberwarfare with Mexico. But instead I'll just go with the insane notion of a print media resurgence. Look, we all know that electronic media will continue to dominate. But there’s one beneficial element to print media vehicles that we’ve all overlooked: Vanity.
What’s the point of reading the Wall Street Journal if people can’t see how smart and business-savvy you are for reading the Wall Street Journal? Sure you can use social media to post your favorite articles, but that won’t help you pick up women at the airport. I’m kidding (sort of).
A world where everyone holds a nondescript tablet is a world where appearances lose their impact. And I don’t think that will happen. Right now, the tablet itself is the status symbol. But once tablets become ubiquitous, I predict we’ll see a countercultural resurgence of print. “Look at me,” you’ll say as you hold your paper copy of the Economist, “I’m an iconoclast. Now ask me about my vinyl record collection.”
-- Jonathan