Kate’s Not-So-Bold (But Probably More Accurate Than Jonathan’s) 2012 Tech Predictions
My colleague Jonathan recently posted three “Extra Bold 2012 Tech Predictions” (see his post immediately following this one), and I would like to respectfully disagree with all of them. In case you would like a quick recap, Jonathan predicts that Facebook will die, voice recognition will fail, and print media will become cool. He also noted he is taking a five year stance on these predictions, which I am going to disregard because he didn’t title his post “Extra Bold 2012-2017 Predictions” and I find that misleading. Hopefully with no hard feelings, here are my rebuttals to each of these predictions:
1. Facebook will not die, it will continue to be the most popular social networking site in the world. With something like 800 million active users, I feel like the only way Facebook could disappear in 2012 would be if the world were to end. Facebook could possibly see more competition from similar networking sites such as Google+ (their layout now looks exactly like the old version of Facebook), but I’m not even sure the two networks are on the same playing field. In regard to the Facebook/Google+ rivalry, I agree with an article published on CNN yesterday by contributor Dan Mitchell who states:
“Perhaps Google Plus will end up being the network of professionals, techies and creative types, while Facebook continues on as the network of the mainstream. Maybe Google Plus will end up with fewer members and less traffic, but higher CPMs.”
Do I think Facebook will have to start picking up their game to compete with other social networks this year? Definitely. But I think my colleague has missed the mark in his prediction of it becoming obsolete.
2. Voice recognition will thrive. I’m a huge fan of the voice commands feature on my Xbox Kinect and the Uconnect Voice Command in my car. There is something ultra convenient about the way these features allow me to multi-task. I can drive safely and make the most of rush hour traffic by jumping on a conference call or adjust what’s on my TV while making dinner without skipping a beat. And, you can’t talk about voice commands without mentioning Siri on the iPhone 4S, which allows you to easily set reminders, shoot off texts and add appointments to your calendar.
I’m not sure why Jonathan is such a hater, but others agree with me that voice recognition will be big in 2012. In fact, in Mashable’s Digital Predictions for 2012 article, Amy-Mae Elliott writes “I think voice recognition is going to be a big trend in 2012. The iPhone 4S’ Siri has brought the technology to a mainstream audience, and other manufacturers will be keen to capitalize on the buzz. It won’t just be phones that will offer the tech, we’ll see a variety of consumer electronics incorporating voice control elements — probably with mixed success!”
3. Print media was cool. Don’t get me wrong, I still love picking up a newspaper and a book in print every once in a while, but eReaders and tablets are just so much easier. So unless you’re the kind of person who only reads in public to attract attention from the ladies (Jonathan?) I think the anticipation surrounding potential announcements of the iPad 3 and Kindle Fire 2 will outshine anything to do with print media this year. Check out this interesting infographic and VentureBeat article for some interesting stats about the economics of books vs. eReaders.
- Kate